Strategic Pro-poor foresight with Female
Introduction
Under the auspices of the ACAIR funded project ‘Food loss mitigation in mango and
tomato value chains in Pakistan and Sri Lanka’, a one-day propoor foresight workshop on
Minimizing tomato losses was conducted at Agosh hotel, Muzafargarh .
48 female stakeholders participated in the workshop, to identify the emerging trends and
contextual factors in the operating environment of tomato value chains in Pakistan that
contribute to food loss and value depletion, including climate change and environmental
degradation. These stakeholders included peasant workers, teachers who are involved with
farming, land owners and local NGO’s.
The sessions mainly employed art and storytelling as a powerful and inclusive method for
imagining propoor future scenarios, identifying local priorities, and co-creating sustainable development
pathways. These approaches can overcome literacy barriers, foster honest participation and
dialogue, and help envision futures beyond current constraints. Through a series of interactive
sessions, the participants were invited to consider the current trends, emerging issues and
plausible future challenges at the intersection of female empowerment, urbanization, agricultural
practices, environmental sustainability, and policy issues.
Opening Session: Introduction to the Project and Foresight
After the registration of the participants, the event started with the recitation of verses from the
Holy Quran. This was followed by a brief presentation on the proceedings of the project, by Dr.
Anwar Shah (Director, ACIAR Project). Mr. Umar Sheraz, a foresight and sustainability expert,
then enlightened the audience with a brief overview of foresight and linking it with the tomato
ecosystem in Pakistan.
The workshop started with a simple question about “What has changed in the local agriculture
scenario in the past 15 years?”
The respondents gave multiple answers that included both positive and negative insights.
POSITIVE INSIGHTS
Agricultural Issues
- Earlier, villages had enough vegetables, local food production and self-sufficiency were
stronger. - People used to earn 300 rupees and there was once more stability in agricultural income.
- Previously, tomato crops were produced organically. There is increased use of modern
machinery and farm mechanization and a shift from traditional to high-value commercial
crops. - There has been growth of agribusiness and value-added food processing. Earlier, soft
tomatoes were thrown away, but now people make ketchup from them at home. - There is now more government support and private sector participation in agriculture.
NEGATIVE INSIGHTS
A. Economic Challenges
- In the past 15 years, the average income has decreased. Expenses are high while income is
low. - Both owners and workers invest time but do not earn enough. Whether tomatoes are sold or
not, laborers still have to be paid. - Farmers face losses in every aspect. Labor costs are high, and losses create even more
problems. - Due to crop losses, household conditions are worsening. Inflation has increased due to flood-
related damages and has increased problems. - A lot of money is spent on water.
- Pesticides have become expensive. Fertilizer prices have increased. Previously, people did
not use sprays on tomato crops; As a result, the cultivation of tomatoes was not as good
compared to nowadays due to the use of sprays. The yield has increased, but due to
fertilizers, the quality of soil has decreased. - Children’s education expenses have gone up.
- Tomatoes are not sold in outside markets (limited market access).
B. Agricultural Issues
- Crop diseases have increased.
- Using canal water damages the crops.
- Crop cultivation yields are low, resulting in financial losses for farmers.
- Farmers have faced losses due to recurring flood situations.
- Global warming is affecting the cultivation of tomatoes.
- The drainage system has weakened, adversely affecting tomato crops.
- Excessive use of fertilizers has created serious health issues for humans (also environmental).
C. Social & Environmental Impacts
- Climate change has significantly impacted the environment.
- Population is increasing, crops are giving losses, and problems are rising.
- Resources are limited while problems are many.
- People are moving towards cities (rural migration).
- The positive use of mobile phones is limited, while negative use is prevalent, leading to
reduced interest in education. - Previously, there was consumption of traditional (desi) food and people were healthier, but
nowadays reliance on junk food is causing health issues, particularly in children.
Session 2: Using Community Mapping to benchmark the present
The participants were asked to draw a “Community Map of the Present” and outline their current
strengths and weaknesses. The purpose was to understand the village life of the present and the
strengths, struggles, and emerging changes of the workers, before imagining the future. Using art
the participants were encouraged to outline their village, roads, fields, lakes, hospital, school,
animals, etc. They were then encouraged to enumerate their biggest challenges and point out the
resources that give them strength?
Art and storytelling are powerful tools to make futures thinking accessible to communities with
low literacy levels — including female farm workers, indigenous groups, and rural youth —
because they use symbols, stories, and sensory experiences instead of written language. Given
below are the colorful artworks of various groups that outline their villages, explore their
challenges and the resources that give them strength.
Strengths | Weaknesses |
| 1. Most of the participants thought of animals as their strength. | 1. Access and affordability of food |
| 2. Availability of land for cultivating | 2. Children care and distant locations from school |
| 3. Tomato cultivation has generated significant revenue for farmers | 3. Prevalence of the caste system |
| 4. The industry has created jobs and increased labor demand, leading to higher wages. | 4. Distant location of hospitals for people and veterinary hospital for animals |
| 5. Social system and community networks | 5. Significant portion of the tomato crop is wasted due to lack of proper storage and processing facilities |
| 6. Clean environment/ fresh, naturally raised products like eggs and meat | 6. Unemployment leading to drug addiction |
| 7. Resilient Hybrid varieties | 7. Vegetables are not cultivated in garden land |
| 8. Better veterinary awareness | 8. Cost of seeds and fertilizer has increased significantly. Rise in crop pests and disease |
| 9. Crop damage due to floodwater |
Session 3: Exploring individual and collective orientation towards the far future forsight with female
After a short break, the participants were invited to play the Polak game. The Polak Game is a
tool to explore individual and collective orientation towards the far future. Participants have to
decide their position as determined by their belief in the future unfolding better or worse and
their ability or agency to influence the output. These two represent important ways in which
futurists acquire the ‘pulse of a community’ as well as try to influence change.
The Polak game captured the participant’s view of the future using a 2×2 matrix, measuring it
along two axes:
- Optimistic/ Pessimistic about the future of tomato cultivation in my village
- I can influence change/ can’t make a difference to the future of tomato cultivation in my area
Based on the interactive game play, the views of the participants are given below.
Proponents of a Bright future
- Use of technology and skilled farmers can result in value-addition for tomato. Digital
transformation through mobile apps, data analytics, and e-markets. - Potential for greater production as there is going to be increase in the population
- Tomatoes are increasingly being used in various products. Tomatoes often go to waste, but
they can be processed into ketchup and sold. - Good cultivation practices, fertilizers and seed protection can be implemented in the future
- Research centers are necessary to improve agriculture.
- If the government takes steps to address issues of export, digital platforms, water scarcity and
disease control, the next decade will be pleasant for the farmer
Proponents of a Dark Future
- Farmers continue to face losses due to flood situations (even the 2010 flood), which people
have not yet overcome - The future is bright only when farmers prosper
- Inflation and low income is making the future appear dark
- The government has not demonstrated any seriousness towards uplift of agriculture.
Can we influence change in the future?
No!
- There has been consistent decline in agriculture and nothing seems possible now
- Change does not seem possible as agriculture is not the priority of government.
- Prices are very high, and even after using fertilizers, the crops do not grow well.
Yes!
- If we work hard in our fields, the future will be bright and change is possible.
- If we commit to hard work, we can imagine a good future.
- If there is proper management of business aspects of agriculture and its marketing, they will be
more beneficial and profitable - Recognition that nothing is permanent and encouragement to be courageous
Session 4: Imagining Futures using scenarios
In the foresight with female the participants were introduced to the concept of scenarios to consider and prepare for the
future. Scenarios allow stakeholders to view the current situation in a new light, and uncover
new possibilities. By examining possible outcomes, stakeholders can develop strategies for
different situations. This was done by narrating short, vivid “challenging” and “hopeful”
scenarios. In both scenarios, participants in the scenario exercise were asked to look ahead
approximately 10 years to 2035 and anticipate the future of the tomato ecosystem in Pakistan.
There was a 4-year old girl named Natasha in the audience. The participants were encouraged to
envision the contours of a future in which 14-year old Natasha would be living, after a decade.
First a challenging (worst-case) scenario was narrated
“It is the year 2035. The rains no longer come on time and the tomatoes dried up before harvest. Many
men from the village left for the city to find work, but they were not able to send much money back. Food
has became expensive in the market and there is inflation. Food has become so expensive that mothers eat
less so their children could have a little food to eat. The girls in the village had to leave school to fetch
water from far away. Some families even sold their animals. The land feels parched, and the women feel
more tired. People say, ‘We used to have hope, but now we only survive day by day.’”
After narrating this story, the participants were asked:
- “What did you feel when you heard this story?”
- “Could this happen in your village?”
- “What part of this story gives us warning/hope?”
For some participants the seeds for such a challenging future are already there. In the next ten
years, we could witness the damage caused by increasing global warming. The farmer will suffer
losses, and crops will not yield a good return. Pollution is increasing and water resources are
decreasing. There is emergence and spread of new diseases and the earnings could go towards
paying off loans to counter losses. Food inflation is a reality and it could get worse. There is also
increased migration toward urban areas due to low pay and unemployment. Unemployment is
leading to mental health challenges such as depression and society is deteriorating.
However almost all women, disagreed with the suggestion of removing their daughters from
school. They unanimously agreed that education is essential for the uplift of their community and
that, under no circumstances, would they consider discontinuing their children’s education,
regardless of gender
Secondly, a hopeful (preferred) scenario was narrated
“It is the year 2035. The women of the village have formed a cooperative to grow new crops that survive
heat and need less water. They set up a small seed bank so no one is left empty-handed. Young people
learned new skills on their phones and teach others as well. The girls go to school, where they also learn
different skills about innovations in agriculture, and use water carefully. The men and women share work
fairly and have equal pay. Food is cheaper in the market, and the village has extra to sell. People say,
‘We used to struggle alone, but now we dream and build together.’”
After narrating this story, the participants were again asked:
- “What did you feel when you heard this story?”
- “Could this happen in your village?”
- “What part of this story gives us warning/hope?”
The scenario sparked hope and a sense of joy in the participants, reconnecting them with
possibility and a shift from survival mode to imagination. Such a future could be possible with
hard work, commitment and faith in Allah. If the community works harder, the next ten to fifteen
years can be pleasant. If the agricultural system and business improves, the future can be bright.
If we improve the conditions of the soil, it will give us more output and also increase the crop's
value. If everyone improves themselves, the environment can also get better. By working hard,
we can have a bright future.
However they disagreed on equal pay for men and women as a point of difference. The gender
pay gap has existed and might continue into the next decade. Throughout the workshop the
meagre earning of Rs. 300 per day was mentioned as it has remained constant for many years. At
the same time, men earn Rs. 800 and upwards.
Session 5: Reflections and moving ahead using art
In the final session, the participants were encouraged to go back to their original drawings of the
future and reflect on them. They were then asked to draw images of a preferred future after a
decade, clearly outlining what we do now to move toward the good future? Everyone was
encouraged to share their voice using simple language & local terms. Some of the artefacts are
shared below.
Pathways to bright future by 2035
- Formation of women’s cooperative committees
- Development of water-resistant crop varieties
- Establishment of seed banks
- Access to quality education through schools
- Promotion of large-scale plantation initiatives
- Environmental restoration and pollution control
- Education and capacity-building programs near their villages
- Establishment of dedicated organizations
- Advancement of research activities
- Commitment, hard work, and faith in Allah
- If we change our outlook, we can also feel positive.
- Resources are limited while problems are many.
- Only if we do something ourselves (self-help), we can think of a better future.
The event ended with a note of thanks and concluding remarks on plausible ways forward.